{"id":20150,"date":"2021-04-28T17:40:06","date_gmt":"2021-04-28T16:40:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.noatum.com\/impact-suez-blockade-oil-gas\/"},"modified":"2021-06-16T08:44:44","modified_gmt":"2021-06-16T07:44:44","slug":"impact-suez-blockade-oil-gas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.noatum.com\/en\/impact-suez-blockade-oil-gas\/","title":{"rendered":"The impact of the Suez blockade on oil and gas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Under normal circumstances about 8% of LNG and about 2 million barrels of oil pass through the Suez Canal every day. In addition, 10% of the world&#8217;s trade passes through Egypt using this strategic waterway and the movement generated there translates into more than 8.5 million euros in goods.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A single day without activity could have (and has had) a devastating effect on maritime traffic and the supply of goods, generating a new era of uncertainty in the global oil and gas supply market.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Ever Given <\/span><\/b><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">bottleneck,<\/span><\/b><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> <\/span><\/b><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">an<\/span><\/b><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">unprecedented event <\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">On March 23, an unprecedented event threatened to block one of the world&#8217;s most important and busiest access routes, with the consequences that this could have on global supply chains. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Suez Canal, the main commercial artery between Europe and Asia, was paralyzed by the Panamanian <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Ever<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Given, one of the world&#8217;s largest container ships, which ran aground in the canal, causing a bottleneck at one of the most strategic points of international maritime traffic and congesting the movement of more than 10% of the world&#8217;s maritime logistics.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Following the incident, on March 29th <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noatumlogistics.com\/es\/ever-given-ha-sido-reflotado\/\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">the ship ran aground,<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">as we reported in this article, which includes official information broadcast by state television and reported by CNN. <\/span> <span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The result, that same day, was 369 ships trapped <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">in a tailback<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> trying to pass through the canal on both sides of a blockade that finally ended, but after which numerous unforeseen events and other consequences were expected to be resolved in order to restore normality to the Suez Canal.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":1,\"335551620\":1,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Effects during the first days of the blockade<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":1,\"335551620\":1,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The first days after the stranding were crucial for studying the situation, monitoring every movement that was generated and configuring a strategy with which to approach the next steps to be taken. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">At that point, and even now with the vessel aground, the crucial thing is to keep under control all the operations associated with this accident in order to achieve real-time traceability to inform shippers of the transit of their goods.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">During the first days of blockades, from March 23 to 28, the effects were already clear and the incident resulted in some of the following situations:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Significant vessel delays on all Asia, Middle East and Europe services.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"134233279\":true,\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":1,\"335551620\":1,\"335559737\":0,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Blank voyages in Asia to reposition schedules while ships are out of position for returns. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"134233279\":true,\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":1,\"335551620\":1,\"335559737\":0,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Loaded containers take longer to reposition and return, having an effect on empties as well.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"134233279\":true,\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":1,\"335551620\":1,\"335559737\":0,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Urgent cargoes were redirected to airfreight to avoid major incidents, but this also has an impact on rates.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"134233279\":true,\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":1,\"335551620\":1,\"335559737\":0,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":1,\"335551620\":1,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Impact on the oil and gas industry once unblocked<\/span><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":1,\"335551620\":1,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Suez Canal has traditionally been considered an essential route for the transport of liquefied natural gas and oil, a claim supported by data provided by <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Lloyd&#8217;s<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">List<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Intelligence<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">: last year some 5,163 tankers passed through the canal and moved almost 2 million barrels of oil every day. <\/span> <span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">On the other hand, official sources, such as the EIA, confirm that oil flows through this route represent close to 10% of the total amount traded worldwide, and that the same is almost true for LNG, which accounts for 8%.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Due to its importance, the impact of this incident on the sector that concerns us, oil and gas, is still an unknown and, in fact, it is in the hands of specialized analysts and economists who try to make a forecast as accurate as possible to accelerate decision making.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Regardless of this, the weight of this sector as it passes through the Suez Canal is in itself a consequence in terms of supply, which will definitely affect prices depending on available reserves. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">According to Osama Rabie, head of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), the grounding of the <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Ever<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Given<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> has had a strong impact on the canal from day one, costing it &#8220;between US$14 million and US$15 million for each day of blockage&#8221;. In particular, he notes, &#8220;world crude oil prices rose by more than 6% immediately&#8221;. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">But, is the impact on prices that this incident may cause really great? According to experts, on March 23, Brent crude already fell to 60 dollars a barrel (-4%), and then rose to 64.3 dollars. This could indicate that the impact on oil would be significant. However, current reserves are abundant (a direct consequence of the <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">covid<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">crisis) and the impact of the stranding is not being substantially reflected in the price of crude oil. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Other data also support the theory that &#8220;it could have been worse&#8221;. The reserves generated during the health crisis could have been the buffer against this incident, according to consultants such as Arthur D. Little <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Middle<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> East, from which they send a clear message: &#8220;If the incident had taken place at a time with greater demand for crude oil and gas, and with lower volumes of reserves and less available production capacity, there would have been a considerable increase in prices&#8221;, as well as other consequences that could have been devastating for the market.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Two other factors are also involved: routes and seasonality. It is not news that, in recent years, the largest volumes of oil and liquefied gas from the Persian Gulf have been transported directly to India or China. Likewise, the proximity to the summer season also helps, since if the bottleneck had been generated in winter or just before the start of that season, the demand for gas would have been higher and perhaps that would have caused other serious consequences. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In short, although most analysts are optimistic about the situation, without overlooking the seriousness of the matter, we still have to wait and see the real consequences of the <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Ever<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Given<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">stranding, an event, as we say: <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">unprecedented<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. <\/span> <span data-ccp-props=\"{\"201341983\":0,\"335551550\":6,\"335551620\":6,\"335559739\":160,\"335559740\":259}\"> <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Under normal circumstances about 8% of LNG and about 2 million barrels of oil pass through the Suez Canal every day. In addition, 10% of the world&#8217;s trade passes through<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20147,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20150","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The impact of the Suez blockade on oil and gas | Noatum<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.noatum.com\/en\/impact-suez-blockade-oil-gas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The impact of the Suez blockade on oil and gas | Noatum\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Under normal circumstances about 8% of LNG and about 2 million barrels of oil pass through the Suez Canal every day. 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